Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Georgi Penchev
Author-Email: gpenchev@unwe.bg
Author-Workplace-Name: University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria
Title: Political debate as a filter: defence policy dynamics in EU member states (2004-2024)
Abstract: This article examines the relationship between external threats, domestic political debate, and defence expenditures in EU member states, 2004-2024. Using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) applied to Manifesto Project data, political debate dynamics are quantitatively measured against a threat index constructed from UCDP conflict fatalities. Robustness is confirmed against per-capita and distance-weighted variants and the Caldara-Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk index. Cluster analysis identifies four threat-response patterns and two debate-spending patterns. Right-wing governments show systematically higher defence stances. GDP-weighted EU averages diverge substantially from simple averages, particularly for opposition stances. The comparative analysis confirms the mediating role of domestic politics in European defence policy heterogeneity.
Keywords: defence policy, political debate, defence expenditures, European Union
Pages: 216-243
Volume: 17
Year: 2026
Month: June
DOI: https://doi.org/10.47743/ejes-2026-0109
File-URL: https://ejes.uaic.ro/articles/EJES2026_1701_09_PEN.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:jes:eurint:y:2026:v:17:p:216-243