Eastern Journal of European Studies

e-ISSN: 2068-6633 | ISSN: 2068-651X

Volume 12  |  Issue 1 |  June 2021

Investigating the impact of GDP and distance variables in the gravity model using sign and rank tests 

Authors: Berislav ZMUK, Hrvoje JOSIC  
Abstract: The gravity model of trade has been a workhorse of international economics over the last fifty years. The main variables incorporated in the standard gravity model of trade are gross domestic product of trading countries and distance between them. The previous investigation has been limited only to an econometric estimation and evaluation of regression coefficients in the gravity model and their significance. However, until now there has been no research on investigating the impact of GDP and Distance variables in the gravity model by using sign and rank tests, which is the objective of this paper. This paper adds to the existing literature by employing non-parametric approach to estimating the impact of variables in the gravity model by using sign and rank tests in the case of World countries. The results of the analysis have shown that the GDP variable exhibits a higher distribution of positive signs achieved in the sign test and presents less average errors in the rank test in predicting bilateral trade imports with regards to the Distance variable. Furthermore, the GDP variable also has a relatively higher impact in the gravity model than the Distance variable. 

Keywords: gravity model, World countries, sign and rank tests, RMSE, MAPE,
Pages: 5-30 | Full text (PDF)


The effectiveness of applying beta-coefficient modifications when calculating returns on shares in Russian companies

Authors: Valentina ZOZULYA, Evgeny SOKOLOV, Evgeny KOSTYRIN, Sergey KOROLEV 
Abstract: This article analyzes the effectiveness of various beta coefficient modifications in forecasting on the Russian stock market. Objective: To test the hypothesis of the superiority of modified beta coefficients in forecast accuracy. Methods: Calculating and comparing the stock returns of ten companies that play a key role in the Russian economy based on three beta coefficient modifications: classic, Monkhouse, and two beta. The criteria were used for verifying sample homogeneity in order to test the hypothesis that modified beta coefficients produce more accurate forecasting. Results: The analysis showed that, in most cases, none of the three models obtained relevant results for the Russian companies. None of the modifications tested can be recognized with high confidence as more accurate than traditional beta coefficients. Conclusions: In the contemporary Russian stock market, the CAPM does not allow one to produce satisfactory forecasts on stock returns. 
Keywords: beta, capital asset pricing model, modified beta, stock returns, test of homogeneity of samples, 
Pages: 31-52 | Full text (PDF)


The practices and corporate governance frameworks: comparative evidence from south-eastern European countries

Authors: Albulena SHALA, Albana Berisha QEHAJA
Abstract: Strong corporate governance requires legal, regulatory, and structural frameworks to be relevant and efficient. Poor corporate governance mechanisms, a lack of knowledge of the importance of good corporate governance and, often, a poor institutional structure were major impediments to the growth of effective financial markets and establishment of a stable investment environment in South-Eastern European Countries (SEE). In this paper, we comparatively analyse corporate governance practices and their legal frameworks in SEE countries. The study results show, on the one hand, that Albania has the lowest scores in corporate governance practices and, on the other hand, that Croatia and Slovenia have the highest scores in these practices. Overall, corporate governance is a significant subject for organizations of all sizes and has drawn interest from policy, corporate executives, stakeholders, and academic researchers.
Keywords: corporate governance, ownership, boards, South-Eastern Europe (SEE) ,   
Pages: 53-80 | Full text (PDF)


Transitional justice and democratic consolidation in post-communist Eastern Europe: Romania and Albania

Author: Ilir KALEMAJ
Abstract: While there are many studies on the democratization trajectory of former communist countries of Eastern Europe, only a few of them have a particular focus on how transitional justice helps democratic consolidation. The present comparative study seeks to fill that gap by focusing specifically on the cases of Romania and Albania, situating them in the wider kaleidoscope of former Eastern Europe. Some of these countries have had a fast implementation of transitional justice measures and successful democratization. Yet, despite adopting an early mechanism of transitional justice, others did not necessarily have any particular success in their democratic endeavour. On the other hand, additional states have had democratic consolidation despite not undertaking such rapid measures (for example Estonia), while others have failed either to adopt the transitional justice mechanisms or democratizing at all (i.e., Belarus). The present paper offers a theoretical framework that seeks to capture and explain such dynamics and by referring specifically to the telling cases of Romania and Albania, to explain what role and impact transitional justice measures have in democratic transitions.
Keywords: transitional justice, democratic consolidation, Eastern Europe, Romania, Albania,
Pages: 81-103 | Full text (PDF)


Analysis of bribery predictors for the student population. Evidence from Romania and Moldova 

Authors: Aurelian-Petrus PLOPEANU, Daniel HOMOCIANU 
Abstract: This study analyzes the bribery acceptance propensity. We used 5072 responses from students in economics (seven universities from the Republic of Moldova and two Romanian regions). We wanted to see communism's impact on this inclination from east to west in territories with Romanian origins. We used purposive sampling, Data Mining, OLS, and Logit regressions with marginal effects and prediction nomograms. Theoretically, we found that proximity to Western countries matters for explaining differences between models. We also discovered strong common influences: competition (negative and mightier for Central-Western Romania), accepting undue advantages, and the immoral act of buying stolen goods (both positive and more potent for Moldova). We additionally identified peculiarities: the desire to become an entrepreneur, anti-democratic attitudes, attitude towards the interventionist role of the state in the economy, nepotism, tax evasion behaviour, inherited sense of responsibility, altruism, and hard work, mother's faith in God, interpersonal trust and individual freedom.  
Keywords: bribery, historical regions, data mining, logit and OLS regressions, risk prediction nomograms ,
Pages: 104-140 | Full text (PDF)


The role of education in explaining technology-intensive exports: a comparative analysis of transition and non-transition economies

Author: Arta MULLIQI
Abstract: This article examines the role of education in explaining the technology-intensive exports of 27 European countries. A comparative analysis of transition and non-transition economies is also conducted in this article. The empirical assessment provides sufficient evidence to support the hypothesized positive link between the stock of population with tertiary education and the share of medium-high and high-technology exports for the full sample of countries, the effect being relatively stronger for the high-technology category. The importance of higher levels of education is further supported by the non-linear relationship between the average years of schooling and technology intensive exports. The empirical findings also reveal a positive and highly significant relationship between the share of population with tertiary education and the export sophistication of the full set of countries. The evidence from country group estimations is weaker. Some supporting evidence is found for the hypothesized role of the quality of education.
Keywords: technology-intensive exports, education attainment, quality of education, transition economies ,
Pages: 141-172 | Full text (PDF)


External debt sustainability in the transition economies of southeast Europe: an application by wavelet-based unit root tests

Author: Memduh Alper DEMİR
Abstract: This study aims to examine the external debt sustainability in the transition economies of Southeast Europe, some of which are among the developing countries, by wavelet-based unit root tests. In this framework, the unit root test was applied to the gross foreign debt variable, and the variable consisting of the ratio of the gross foreign debt to the gross domestic product (GDP) of the countries and their stationaries were examined. Each country differs depending on the time dimension in the analysis. However, in general, starting from the 2000s until the second quarter of 2020, the data were taken as a quarter. The data were first tested for linearity and the FWKSS and WKSS unit root tests were applied to the nonlinear data. According to the test results, external debt is sustainable in Romania and Bulgaria for both variables in the analysis. However, it has been observed that foreign debt is unsustainable in North Macedonia and Slovenia for these two variables. In terms of the gross external debt variable, external debt was sustainable in Albania and Croatia. However, in terms of gross external debt/GDP ratio, it has been found that foreign debts are unsustainable in Albania and Croatia.
Keywords: Southeast Europe, transition economies, external debt, sustainability, wavelet-based unit root tests, FWKSS, WKSS,
Pages: 173-190 | Full text (PDF)


Support for export as a non-standard Central Bank policy: foreign exchange interventions in the case of the Czech Republic

Authors: David KRIZEK, Josef BRCAK
Abstract: Because of the crisis and, inter alia, to restore economic growth, some central banks have applied a non-standard monetary policy. In the case of the Czech Republic, this was in the form of foreign exchange interventions to support exports. Export is divided into sub-parts, which are examined by mainly using regression analysis in terms of changes in central bank indicators. The results show that foreign exchange interventions indeed had a positive impact on total exports, though considerably asymmetric. The standard instrument of the central bank, the Policy Interest Rate, has a much more significant impact on the industry.  
Keywords: Central Bank; export; foreign exchange interventions; monetary policy; policy interest rate,
Pages: 191-218 | Full text (PDF)


Fiscal sustainability analysis in EU countries: a dynamic macro-panel approach

Authors: Gozde Es POLAT, Onur POLAT
Abstract: In this work, we analyze fiscal sustainability for 26 EU and PIIGS countries in terms of Bohn's (2008) approach. In this context, we use primary surplus-to-GDP, public debt-to-GDP, government revenues/expenditures-to-GDP, business cycle, and fluctuations in government expenditures variables in the period 1995-2018. A positive and long-run relationship between lagged public debt and primary surplus-to-GDP indicates that fiscal policy is sustainable for the EU, overall. However, the fiscal sustainability criterion is not met for the PIIGS since the transversality condition is not met. Empirical findings of the study underline an effective regulatory policy framework to monitor fiscal policy developments for both core and periphery EU states.
Keywords: Fiscal Sustainability, Intertemporal Budget Constraint, Panel Data Analysis,
Pages: 219-241 | Full text (PDF)


Euroscepticism of the Conservative Party and the Labour Party during the 2015 general election campaign

Author: Ondřej DOLEZEL
Abstract: The United Kingdom had been a part of the European integration process since 1973. The 2016 referendum, in which British citizens voted to leave the EU, could be considered as an imaginary peak of tensions between the political priorities of the UK and the EU. The article therefore addresses the attitude of two major British political parties, the Conservative Party, and the Labour Party, towards European integration during the 2015 general election campaign. The article analyses the stance of these parties towards the EU by using two typologies of Euroscepticism. The first theoretical framework of Soren Riishoj determines the content of Euroscepticism. The second developed by Aleks Szczerbiak and Paul Taggart focuses on the intensity of its manifestation. The Analytical part is devoted to the research of the party positions themselves. The main goal is to answer whether the parties can be defined as hard or soft Eurosceptic. Additionally, it will be possible to compare the intensity of their Eurosceptic stances and analyse their attitude to the referendum pledge.    
Keywords: Euroscepticism; Conservative Party; Labour Party; United Kingdom; European Union,
Pages: 242-257 | Full text (PDF)


Armenian foreign policy between Eurasian and European integration models

Abstract: The article examines foreign policy challenges regarding Armenia's participation in integration models proposed by the EU and Russia, which have changed their role in the contemporary international relations. The discussion focuses on the case study of Armenia to explore how the country is affected by the growing tensions between the EU and Russia and whether it manages to combine two integration models. It argues that growing tensions between the EU and Russia have not allowed Armenia to achieve the Russian-European balance. However, the multi-vector foreign policy strategy allows to maintain and enhance political and economic cooperation with both parties.    
Keywords: Armenia, foreign policy, integration, EU-Russia competition,
Pages: 258-275 | Full text (PDF)


The Eurasian Economic Union as part of Eurasian (dis)integration

Abstract: Exploring the main cooperation schemes between the member-states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) within a broader context of the geopolitical processes in the Post-Soviet space, the article intends to discuss the feasibility of integration among Former Soviet countries. The article intends to present the formally announced integration initiatives in the Post-Soviet space (such as the CIS, EurAsEC and EAEU) as part of a de-facto ongoing process of disintegration that started right after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Within this scheme, Russia consistently acts as a generator of a centripetal integration force by proposing different institutional frameworks for integration. However, it is not sufficiently powerful to overcome the centrifugal inertia acquired by the rest of the Post-Soviet states. The article concludes that, in spite of its formal integration purposes, the EAEU is indeed another stage of the ongoing disintegration process in the Post-Soviet space.   
Keywords: Eurasian Integration, Eurasian Economic Union, Post-Soviet space, Russia, disintegration ,
Pages: 276-290 | Full text (PDF)


Idiosyncrasies and ideologies in the evolution of EU relations with eastern partnership states

Authors: Melania-Gabriela CIOT, Ana DAMASCHIN
Abstract: The Eastern Partnership as part of the European Neighbourhood Policy aims to include states' economic, cultural, and political cooperation. Over a decade, the ambitious objectives of the European Union's Eastern Partnership policies have brought sizeable benefits. Still, the program is not one of the EU's strategic successes, as its founding fathers claim. This research analyses each state of the Eastern Partnership to determine the evolution of their relations with the European Union.  As the presence of idiosyncrasies demonstrates the need for a psychological approach to foreign policy decision-making, through a practical analysis, we have sought to identify discursive patterns that would mark the presence of certain types of idiosyncrasies and investigate their association with the undertaken decisions.  At the same time, the findings provide empirical arguments regarding the importance of idiosyncrasies in decision-making and political outcomes between six countries from the Eastern Partnership and EU. It is by no means an exhaustive analysis but rather an attempt to outline some of the key issues which have been on the agenda of the EaP over the past decade.   
Keywords: leadership, Eastern Partnership, idiosyncrasies, cooperation ,
Pages: 291-312 | Full text (PDF)


Boris Vormann and Michael Weinman (eds.), The Emergence of Illiberalism: Understanding a Global Phenomenon

Author: Marton GERA
Pages: 313-317 | Full text (PDF)


Hulya Kaya, The EU-Turkey Statement on Refugees. Assessing Its Impact on Fundamental Rights

Author: Carmen MOLDOVAN 
Pages: 318-320 | Full text (PDF)


EJESİ Centre for European Studies - Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iași 2010 |